Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Spurs-Thunder Will Be Over in 5

I did not have a chance to see many of the San Antonio Spurs games during the regular season. The only games I saw them play were against the woeful Lakers, where they looked unstoppable, and the Thunder, where they looked over-matched in terms of speed and athleticism. The Spurs lost all four matchups versus Oklahoma City during the regular season, but you would not have known that watching last night.

The Spurs' offense ran like clockwork for most of the night. They moved the ball and got into the paint at will. Tony Parker exploited Russel Westbrook's aggressive defense by baiting him on pick and rolls before he would crossover, gaining a step on him towards the basket. Normally, Serge Ibaka is there to minimize the effect of the gambles by the Thunder's perimeter defenders, but with him out of the lineup, they had to rely on slow-footed Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, and Steven Adams. Neither Perkins nor Collison have the athleticism to stop guards once they get into the lane, and Adams is still learning the nuances of pick and roll defense in the NBA. Parker shredded the Thunder for 14 points and 12 assists on 50% shooting, while only committing one turnover. Manu Ginobili did the same in the third quarter.


After the Thunder regained the lead in the third quarter, Ginobili decided to take over the game with both teams' starters sitting on the bench. He abused Reggie Jackson and Steven Adams three straight trips on offense to end the third. Jackson was unable to recover defensively on each pick and roll Ginobili ran with Aron Baynes. Steven Adams would attempt to hedge, but Ginobili would either blow by him straight to the rim for an easy layup or throw Baynes a beautiful pass while he was rolling down the lane.




This sequence of three straight buckets opened up the Spurs' lead again after the Thunder's comeback and began to put the game out of reach.


Again, I have to go back to the importance of Serge Ibaka. His ability to defend exactly these types of plays is unmatched by anyone else on the Thunder's roster. With Serge Ibaka on the court, the Spurs shot just 47.1% in the paint against the Thunder during the regular season. Without Ibaka on the court, that number skyrockets to 61.3% (according to ESPN Stats & Info). Last night, the Spurs shot 66.3% in the lane and had 66 points in the paint!


Durant and Westbrook can only do so much on the offensive end. To expect them to attempt to keep pace with that type of scoring is insane, and even with help from Jackson or Fisher off the bench, it's a difficult task. That kind of offensive onslaught, combined with their superior bench, is what will win the San Antonio Spurs this series in just five games.


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