The Miami Heat began their season as the title favorite. They had just won two in a row. Why wouldn't they be there for a third? The Bulls lost Derrick Rose early in the year, essentially eliminating them from title contention, but the Indiana Pacers got out to a 40-12 start by the time the all-star break rolled around. They were in first place in the Eastern Conference, and it seemed as if we were destined again for a grueling seven game series between Indiana and Miami to see who would represent the East in the Finals. This time, Indiana would be playing game seven at home. No one was sure about the health of Dwyane Wade or the consistency of Chris Bosh, and the path to a 3-peat looked extremely difficult. In the end, the Pacers collapsed, and the Heat took the Eastern Conference with relative ease, capped by a dominant game 6 performance where they controlled Indiana from start to finish.
We will see the same extraordinary matchup we saw last year. I think, this time, the outcome will be different. As much as I hate betting against LeBron James, I believe the Spurs will win this series in seven games and hoist the trophy on their home court, like the Heat did last season.
The Spurs lost Gary Neal and DeJuan Blair over the offseason, both serviceable, yet replaceable NBA players. Marco Belinelli stepped in to fill Neal's role while a combination of Jeff Ayres and Aron Baynes, along with more minutes for Boris Diaw, replaced Blair. More importantly, Manu Ginobili, who was nonexistent at times during the Finals last year, seems rejuvenated. He played a huge role in the Spurs' victory over Oklahoma City and will need to maintain the same level of production for the Spurs to beat the Heat. Another advantage the Spurs have: home court advantage. Miami didn't need it against Indiana, but it made a noticeable impact on their title run last year.
The Heat, on the other hand, struggled to replace what they lost. Mike Miller was amnestied after the end of the season last year. They have to rely on Rashard Lewis, a less reliable shooter, to take, and make, the shots Miller did during their 2013 campaign. Shane Battier has become less consistent in every aspect of his game. His shooting percentages dropped across the board, but most importantly, his 3-point percentage decreased drastically, from very good at 43.0% in '12-13 to below league average at 34.8% in '13-14 (according to basketball-reference.com). The extra burden falls on LeBron's shoulders. Wade has pulled his weight with his impressive playoff performance so far, but in order to beat the Spurs, LeBron will need turn in four otherworldly games.
As long as Tony Parker's ankle is not an issue, the Spurs will be taking home the 2014 NBA title.
